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Grass Makes Better Ethanol than Corn

Midwestern farms prove switchgrass could be the right crop for producing ethanol to replace gasoline

switchgrass 
GRASS GAS: Turning fields of switchgrass like this one in northeastern Nebraska into ethanol produces 540 percent more energy than the amount consumed growing the native perennial.
COURTESY OF USDA-ARS

Farmers in Nebraska and the Dakotas brought the U.S. closer to becoming a biofuel economy, planting huge tracts of land for the first time with switchgrass—a native North American perennial grass (Panicum virgatum) that often grows on the borders of cropland naturally—and proving that it can deliver more than five times more energy than it takes to grow it.

Working with the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the farmers tracked the seed used to establish the plant, fertilizer used to boost its growth, fuel used to farm it, overall rainfall and the amount of grass ultimately harvested for five years on fields ranging from seven to 23 acres in size (three to nine hectares).

Once established, the fields yielded from 5.2 to 11.1 metric tons of grass bales per hectare, depending on rainfall, says USDA plant scientist Ken Vogel. "It fluctuates with the timing of the precipitation,'' he says. "Switchgrass needs most of its moisture in spring and midsummer. If you get fall rains, it's not going to do that year's crops much good."

But yields from a grass that only needs to be planted once would deliver an average of 13.1 megajoules of energy as ethanol for every megajoule of petroleum consumed—in the form of nitrogen fertilizers or diesel for tractors—growing them. "It's a prediction because right now there are no biorefineries built that handle cellulosic material" like that which switchgrass provides, Vogel notes. "We're pretty confident the ethanol yield is pretty close." This means that switchgrass ethanol delivers 540 percent of the energy used to produce it, compared with just roughly 25 percent more energy returned by corn-based ethanol according to the most optimistic studies.

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is partially funding the construction of six such cellulosic biorefineries, estimated to cost a total of $1.2 billion. The first to be built will be the Range Fuels Biorefinery in Soperton, Ga., which will process wood waste from the timber industry into biofuels and chemicals. The DOE is providing an initial $50 million to start construction.

"Cost competitive, energy responsible cellulosic ethanol made from switchgrass or from forestry waste like sawdust and wood chips requires a more complex refining process but it's worth the investment," Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman said at the Range Fuels facility groundbreaking in November. "Cellulosic ethanol contains more net energy and emits significantly fewer greenhouse gases than ethanol made from corn."

In fact, Vogel and his team report this week in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA that switchgrass will store enough carbon in its relatively permanent root system to offset 94 percent of the greenhouse gases emitted both to cultivate it and from the derived ethanol burned by vehicles. Of course, this estimate also relies on using the leftover parts of the grass itself as fuel for the biorefinery. "The lignin in the plant cell walls can be burned," Vogel says.

The use of native prairie grasses is meant to avoid some of the other risks associated with biofuels such as reduced diversity of local animal life and displacing food crops with fuel crops. "This is an energy crop that can be grown on marginal land," Vogel argues, such as the more than 35 million acres (14.2 million hectares) of marginal land that farmers are currently paid not to plant under the terms of USDA's Conservation Reserve Program.

But even a native prairie grass needs a helping hand from scientists and farmers to deliver the yields necessary to help ethanol become a viable alternative to petroleum-derived gasoline, Vogel argues. "To really maximize their yield potential, you need to provide nitrogen fertilization," he says, as well as improved breeding techniques and genetic strains. "Low input systems are just not going to be able to get the energy per acre needed to provide feed, fuel and fiber."

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CES Notebook: A Taste of Things to Come

Yearly electronics blowout should be heavy on touchscreens and wireless communication, along with the occasional robot and eco-friendly solution

Celestron LCD digital microscope 
NO MORE SHUT EYE: Celestron's LCD Digital Microscope allows one to look in on cells without peering into a lens.

solar Bluetooth headset 
BLUE FROM GOLD: This Bluetooth headset by Iqua doesn't need an outlet to be recharged, it sucks in ambient light for a power source, making it safe to drive and talk (while also being eco-friendly).

Gary Shapiro interview 
HAIL TO THE CHIEF: Gary Shapiro, the president and CEO of the Consumer Electronics Association is interviewed during the CES: Unveiled press preview.

The annual Consumer Electronics Show (CES) is a maddening array of stimuli--flashy displays, buzzing processors and beeping devices--located in a city known for pretty much all the same hallmarks (Las Vegas, of course).

From the looks of last night's press preview, the two primary orders of the day are touchscreen-enabled software and hardware, as well as wireless transmission of data.

On the touchscreen end, there was a raft of new smartphones, as well as universal remotes to control various home media, like the Logitech Harmony One. Microsoft Vista-enabled software solutions also made a showing, including one from British outfit Ergo, which unveiled Invu, a visual search engine that culls results from sources like Google, Yahoo!, and even Flickr and then groups the hits into contextual subsets (a search for African mammals may separate entries on elephants from entries on giraffes). Webpages can then be marked up--provided you have a touchscreen-enabled PC, like the < a href=" http://digbig.com/4wesg">Dell Latitude XT--by writing directly on the screen, and then sent to others via email.

Wireless solutions were everywhere, transmitting data without cords from digital cameras to laptops or external media players or HDTVs. One device manufacturer partnered with Westinghouse to produce the Pulse-Link, which, with its ultra wideband high definition multimedia interface, streams video in 1080p from a Blue-Ray Disc player or HD-DVD player to LCD TVs. Also on this front, the Logitech Squeezebox Duet enables users to play all the music on their PC from anywhere in their house using standard 802.11 wireless protocol.

Interspersed with the media transmission and transmogrificaiton devices was a sea of iPod docking stations, far and away the most ubiquitous type of new tech toy, with varieties for every age group and demographic. Massachusetts-based Cue offers r1 radio, an iPod dock with a car radio-quality AM/FM tuner. The whole device is controlled by only three-buttons, so it's both elegant and retro (read: meant for an aging baby boomer). For the "I want an iPod nano dock I can put in my fish aquarium"-set, there is the iceBar, a waterproof dock that floats. For a little biomimicry, VestaLife provides a dock that resembles a shiny ladybug. And for stoner college coeds who just discovered Pink Floyd comes the Aquallusion iTube light.

Among several advances in robotic automation was the Wowwee Rovio, a GPS-enabled exploratory stingray on wheels that transmits surveillance video accessible from any PC browser via WiFi. Beyond that, in the coming days SciAm hopes to bring you some footage of "Boss," the Carnegie Mellon University-designed fully autonomous vehicle that won last November's DARPA Urban Challenge race in Victorville, Calif.

For a nod to environmentally friendly tech, the 603 Sun from Iqua is a solar-powered Bluetooth headset that can supply up to 12 hours of continuous talktime (more than most phones allow for) as long as it is exposed to ambient light. Similarly, the NRG Dock can, if its solar panel is placed in an apartment window, allow users to charge iPods and cellphones without ever drawing power from the grid.

Finally, of particular interest to the SciAm CES team was the Celestron LCD Digital Microscope, which the Torrance, Calif.-company is sneak previewing at CES and unveiling at a science teachers' conference in March. The rig has three objective lenses (4x, 10x and 40x magnification) and sports a 3.5-inch LCD screen with a 4,000x zoom that ensures that next generation's high school students and college freshman will not be closing one eye to spy on a paramecium or their own cheek swabs in biology lab.

As overwhelming as they were, the wares on display at this years’ CES press preview are just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to new product announcements at conference. Stay tuned for more – we’ll be covering CES from Las Vegas all week.

What This Gadget Can Do Is Up to You 

Neuros Technology International

“HACKERS, welcome! Here are detailed circuit diagrams of our products — modify them as you wish.”

That’s not an announcement you’ll find on the Web sites of most consumer electronics manufacturers, who tend to keep information on the innards of their machines as private as possible.

But Neuros Technology International, creator of a new video recorder, has decided to go in a different direction. The company, based in Chicago, is providing full documentation of the hardware platform for its recorder, the Neuros OSD (for open source device), so that skilled users can customize or “hack” the device — and then pass along the improvements to others.

The OSD is a versatile recorder. Using a memory card or a U.S.B. storage device, it saves copies of DVDs, VHS tapes and television programs from satellite receivers, cable boxes, TVs and any other device with standard video output.

Because the OSD saves the recordings in the popular compressed video format MPEG-4 (pronounced EM-peg), the programs can be watched on a host of devices, including iPods and smartphones. The OSD is for sale at Fry’s, Micro Center, J&R Electronics and other locations for about $230.

The OSD’s capabilities will grow to suit changing times, said Joe Born, founder and chief executive of the company. “Digital video is a fast-moving space,” he said, and many consumers don’t want to buy a new piece of hardware every time a media company comes out with a new way to watch its shows. “The best way to address this problem was to make the product open source, allowing our smartest developers and users to modify it.”

The OSD has not only open hardware, but also open software: it is based on the Linux operating system. Neuros Technology encourages hacking of the device; it has contests with cash rewards for new applications for the OSD. One winner, for instance, designed a program that lets people use it to watch YouTube on their televisions.

Using the OSD for daily video recording demands no special technical background, and no PC is required. Setup is easy: Plug a U.S.B. hard drive or other memory device into one side of this lightweight unit, and plug the TV and, for example, the DVD player into the other side.

I recorded a show from a DVD this way and, to my delight, I was soon watching it on my iPod. Thank you, hackers!

The OSD does not have a display screen. Its menu is viewed on the television screen and navigated by using the remote control that comes with it. The device can also be connected to a computer or to a home network of computers.

People who are tired of stacks of DVDs and VHS tapes in the living room may find the Neuros an inexpensive way to tidy up: an entire library can be archived on a U.S.B. hard drive. Then you can stroll through your own personal video shop from the living room couch or, when traveling, plug the drive into a laptop to watch programs recorded from satellite or cable service at home.

But these are just the daily functions, designed for duffers like me. Gamers at their consoles can record their online contests, edit the videos and share them with friends. Brett Manners, a mechanical engineer and wind-surfing instructor in Perth, Australia, had another innovative use for the device. He rigged up a combination of the OSD and a video camera and used it to record his wind-surfing adventures directly to MPEG-4 format. (To watch some excerpts, see “Windsurfing With the Neuros OSD” on YouTube.)

Products like the OSD are a good example of a small but growing trend toward openness, said Jimmy Guterman, editor of Release 2.0, a technology and business newsletter published by O’Reilly Media of Sebastopol, Calif.

“The open source hardware movement parallels the earlier open source software movement that started off as a renegade thing 15 years ago,” he said. “Now it’s the center of I.T. at many major Web sites like Google.”

He hopes for the same openness in hardware, although he said that the issue was more complicated. “Companies may keep some aspects of their hardware closed, while opening others,” he said.

Paul Saffo, a Silicon Valley forecaster, said openness was likely to apply to new products like the OSD, rather than to existing proprietary products. “It’s a lot easier to design future products with openness built into them,” he said, “than to open a closed product.” 

When measuring the speed at which far-flung galaxies move, do scientists factor in account that they are seeing the way the galaxies moved in the past? Could this impact Hubble's Law?

Our universe is expanding—astronomers have piled up observations, over many decades, which suggest that other galaxies appear to be moving away from our own Milky Way galaxy (and from each other) at fantastic speeds. There are some small deviations from this pattern, but if you were to "pan the camera back" and take in the universe as a whole, the overall sense would be that galaxies are rushing away from each other, with farther galaxies moving away proportionally faster—a paradigm known as Hubble's Law.

What would the universe look like from this point of view? A good analogy for the expanding universe comes from Martin Gardner, a popular science writer who was also a longtime columnist for Scientific American: Imagine a gigantic blob of dough with a bunch of raisins embedded throughout; the dough represents space, and the raisins represent the galaxies. Now, if someone puts the dough in the oven, it will expand or, more accurately, stretch, keeping the same proportions as it had before, but with all the distances between raisins getting bigger as time goes on.

Astronomers use something called the "Hubble constant" to measure how fast this expansion is taking place. The measured value of the Hubble constant can be written in many ways, but the way I like to write it is 0.007 percent per million years. This means that every million years, the distances between galaxies all stretch by around 0.007 percent.

So what does this number really tell us? For one thing, it tells us that the universe is very old. If one were to go back millions of years, the universe would look pretty much the same as it does now. As long as you stick to measuring galaxies within, say, a hundred million light-years of our own, you can be assured that the universe will not have changed much in the time it took light to travel from those galaxies to us.

But what if you're measuring a galaxy that's a few billion light-years away? In that case, the universe has changed significantly as the light has traveled. Astronomers no longer measure Hubble's Law for these galaxies due to a whole host of problems: If you were to try to measure the "distance" to one of these galaxies, which distance would you get? The distance when the light was emitted? Or the distance the light traveled to reach us (which includes some extra distance because the universe expanded while the light was moving through it, like a runner on an ever stretching racetrack)? Or would you measure the distance that the galaxy is from us currently, which is the largest of them all? Similar problems exist with speed: the Hubble constant changes with time, and depending on how it changes, individual galaxies might be speeding up or slowing down. So when you talk about speed, are you talking about the speed when the light was emitted, the speed now, or something in between? In short, it's all a big mess.

The way to get around this is to stop thinking about distance and speed and to focus on properties that astronomers can measure directly. One thing that astronomers can actually measure is the redshift—as light travels through the expanding universe, the light gets stretched by the same factor that the universe does, causing its wavelength to increase. Since red light has longer wavelengths than blue light, this means that the color of light will move more toward the red end of the spectrum. And instead of distance, astronomers look at objects of known power inside the galaxies (typically type 1a supernovae) and measure how bright they appear. This is a bit like taking a 60-watt lightbulb and moving it to farther and farther distances. As long as we can be sure that the bulb remains at 60 watts, we know that the fainter it appears, the farther away it must be.

Redshift and brightness may be less intuitive than speed and distance, but at least they’re precisely defined. And they’re also very useful. Just like an amateur cook might be able to figure out a restaurant's raisin-bread recipe by baking his own bread over and over again and tasting the final results, astronomers can figure out the expansion of the "raisin bread" universe by generating theoretical models for the relationship between redshift and brightness under different scenarios (in particular, by allowing the Hubble constant to evolve with time in different ways) and throwing away the models that don’t fit the observed data. The results obtained over the past decade very clearly favor models in which the individual galaxies are speeding up—in other words, an accelerating universe.

Getting to Know Nutraceuticals

Claims for some of these food-based dietary supplements stand up to scientific scrutiny, but others falter

 

We live in an age when good nutrition practices—eat lots of whole grains, fresh fruits and fresh vegetables; hold the fatty meat and hydrogenated vegetable oils—are simple, straightforward and widely available. But visit a well-stocked health food store, pharmacy or supermarket, and you’d never know it. The variety of dietary supplements can be overwhelming, with dozens of vitamins, minerals and extracts offered alone and in combinations targeted at every possible intersection of age, sex and activity. And that selection is a nutritional desert compared to the tropical rain forest–level diversity of supplements at more specialized stores.

Dietary supplements are big business in the U.S.: consumer sales in 2006 were estimated at $22.5 billion, with some 60 percent of Americans taking at least a daily multivitamin. But thanks to a regulatory structure designed more to promote the availability of supplements than to ensure that they deliver on their promises, it can seem impossible to figure out what—if anything—you should be taking. The options range from the almost appetizing juxtaposition of garlic, cranberry and soy concentrates to the downright macabre “glandulars.” And if cramming pituitary, prostate and pancreas extracts into a single pill doesn’t count as overkill, then surely another product containing vitamins, minerals and most of the biochemical intermediates of the cellular Krebs cycle must. The skeptical browser could be tempted to ask where to find the snake oil aisle.

But whereas some, or perhaps many, nostrums are no more likely to improve longevity, alertness and athletic performance than the cure-alls of old were to ward off dropsy or nervous agitation, not all can be so easily dismissed. Several once exotic dietary supplements have been the focus of investigation for more than a decade now, and a select few can boast strong quantitative support as a result. One group in particular, the nutraceuticals, is attracting the attention of health advocates and scientists alike.

Occupying a space somewhere between essential nutrients (those nutrients critical to normal health, such as vitamins) and drugs with defined impacts on specific diseases, nutraceuticals are bioactive chemicals derived from foods but taken as supplements at much higher concentrations than diet alone could provide. They include antioxidants from fruits and berries, fatty acids found in cold-water fish, and potentially disease-fighting compounds from common spices such as cinnamon and turmeric. Claims have been made for their role in everything from fighting cancer and cardiovascular disease to maddeningly vague notions about “supporting healthy living.”

“The category of nutraceuticals is really very broad, and their effects may be subtle,” says Paul M. Coates, director of the Office of Dietary Supplements (ODS) at the National Institutes of Health. “That gives you a clue to the scientific challenges of understanding them. They range from supplements where we don’t even know what the active ingredients are to compounds that are well characterized chemically but where the mode of action is still unknown.”

To date, most nutraceuticals have been the subject more of marketing hype than of methodical clinical testing, and for many, it is not even yet known whether they provide more benefits than risks for consumers. But in at least a handful of cases, the science is starting to catch up with the health claims.

The Fishy Benefit of omega-3s
Probably the best known of the nutraceuticals, the omega-3 fatty acids, are also the most intensively studied. Like all fatty acids, the building blocks of fats and oils, omega-3s are linear molecules with a carboxylic acid “head” at one end trailing a “tail” of linked carbon atoms. Those links can be made with either single (saturated) or double (unsaturated) chemical bonds. “Omega-3” simply refers to a double bond in the third position from the end of the carbon tail. Starting with alpha-linolenic acid (ALA, an essential nutrient common in many nuts and vegetable oils), our bodies can synthesize all the omega-3 fatty acids they need to build cell membranes and carry out a host of cellular functions.

But evidently we could stand to make a lot more of at least a couple of them. Beginning in the 1970s, epidemiologists started to notice that Eskimo and other groups of people who ate a lot of cold-water fish tended to have low levels of heart disease and stroke. Oil from such fish is packed with two unusually long omega-3s, docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) and eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA).

“The epidemiological evidence was strong enough that it led to a whole series of clinical studies and randomized control trials with fish oil,” says nutritionist Penny M. Kris-Etherton of Pennsylvania State University. By 2002 the results were positive enough for the American Heart Association panel on which Kris-Etherton sat to issue a statement recommending increased fish consumption for the general public and daily consumption or supplements of fish oil for coronary heart disease patients. Since then, Kris-Etherton says, “the evidence has just grown stronger for a cardioprotective effect from marine-derived omega-3 fatty acids.”

Stronger, yes, though not necessarily less complicated. In a 2006 review of 842 scientific papers on omega-3 fatty acids and cardiovascular disease, a research team based at the Tufts–New England Medical Center in Boston concluded that only EPA and DHA seemed beneficial—ALA, their plant-produced precursor, was not. And while the studies showed clear evidence that fish oil helped to prevent heart attacks and cardiac deaths, especially among patients who had already suffered one heart attack, the effects on stroke were all over the map. For people who have pacemakers, too, “there is a mixed bag of evidence,” Kris-Etherton says. “One study shows a benefit, one shows an adverse effect and one shows no benefit.” It is a common issue with nutrition studies, she notes—given the vast diversity of human research subjects, variations in the concentration or mixture of supplements, and often uncontrolled factors such as baseline diets or preexisting illnesses, “it’s not unusual to see different studies canceling each other out.”

Understanding exactly how DHA and EPA work would help, but the molecular pathways underlying the fatty acids’ heart-protective activity are still unknown. They seem to lower blood levels of triacylglycerol (often called triglyceride), keep cholesterol from gumming up arterial walls, and help to control unwanted blood clotting and inflammation, among other risk factors. Given that fish oil has now been linked to improvements in everything from asthma and rheumatoid arthritis to type 2 diabetes and neurological diseases, there is almost certainly more than one molecular mechanism in play and almost certainly a bright future for omega-3 fatty acids on the supplement shelf.

Science Sours on Favorites
The outlook is not quite so rosy for all the early candidates for nutraceutical stardom, however. In many ways, lycopene was a food manufacturer’s dream compound. Grocery profit margins are notoriously slim, and adding nutraceuticals to staple foods has been prohibitive: consumers who will pay $20 for a bottle of fish oil pills balk at shelling out an additional dollar for a loaf of bread supercharged with omega-3 fatty acids. But lycopene, a deep-red plant pigment and powerful antioxidant, not only shows up in plants such as tomatoes for free, its bioavailability is actually increased by the boiling, squeezing and other rigors of food processing.

Early epidemiological studies suggested that men who ate diets rich in tomato products enjoyed lower than average rates of prostate cancer, and lycopene was identified as the likely reason. The ironic result is that while ketchup may not be the school lunch “vegetable” President Ronald Reagan once claimed it to be, for a while even a foil packet of the stuff had a legitimate shot at being declared a dietary supplement.

Ulrike Peters isn’t happy that she had a hand in placing ketchup back in the condiment aisle. A nutrition and genetics epidemiologist at the University of Washington and the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, she had high hopes for lycopene’s cancer-fighting ability.

But when her research team analyzed blood lycopene levels of participants in a large cancer study, including 692 men who had developed prostate cancer and 844 randomly selected men who had not, they found no association between the antioxidant and the malignancy. Even more troubling, her study found a link between high blood levels of lycopene’s chemical cousin, beta-carotene, and an increased risk of aggressive prostate cancer—not enough to justify avoiding carrots and other food sources of beta-carotene but an ominous sign that not all food-derived compounds are necessarily benign when taken at higher doses.

“The results were very disappointing,” Peters says. “It would be great to have such an inexpensive way to lower prostate cancer risk, but our study dampens that possibility. Unfortunately, it often happens that health claims get out in front of scientific evidence.”

Whether that has also been the case with another, much more popular supplement is still unclear. Glucosamine, a simple amino sugar, is well known to biochemists as the precursor for a wide range of important structural components of the body, including the protein collagen in tough connective tissues such as tendons and ligaments. Collagen is also a major component of the cartilage that makes up the smooth layer that protects and lubricates the bones in joints. Early observational studies suggested that glucosamine could be helpful in combating the pain and cartilage destruction of osteoarthritis, and it is widely available as a supplement derived from shellfish, often in combination with the biochemicals chondroitin sulfate, which helps to make collagen spongy, and methylsulfonylmethane (MSM), a potential anti-inflammatory agent.

Consumer sales reached an estimated $818 million for glucosamine and chondroitin sulfate in 2006, according to the Nutrition Business Journal. Observational studies, while sometimes contradictory, have suggested that arthritis sufferers do indeed benefit from using the supplements. That possibility led to a large NIH-funded clinical trial of the supplements involving patients with knee osteoarthritis. For 24 weeks, 1,583 participants in the aptly named GAIT (Glucosamine/chondroitin Arthritis Intervention Trial) were given one of the following treatments: glucosamine, chondroitin sulfate, both in combination, a placebo, or the COX-2 inhibitor Celebrex (celecoxib) as a control. (COX-2 inhibitors have since been linked to negative cardiovascular side effects.)

The results, published in 2006, were underwhelming. True, almost 67 percent of the patients taking glucosamine plus chondroitin sulfate reported a significant decrease in knee pain—but so did fully 60 percent of those taking the placebo. Only in patients with moderate or severe knee pain at the outset did the supplements show a significant advantage over the placebo, with almost 80 percent of that group reporting a significant improvement, compared with 54.3 percent who took the inert pills. That favorable result is nothing to sneeze at—nor, for that matter, is a placebo effect of 60 percent—but it’s far from warranting a blanket recommendation.

Simple Foods Aren’t So Simple
Even if ketchup is one day recognized as a nutritional powerhouse, it’s not likely to topple tofu from its shimmering, gelatinous perch atop the health food heap. High in protein and low in sugars and unhealthy fats, soybeans and the bean curd produced from them have long been lauded as a sound substitute for animal proteins. But they are also loaded with bioactive compounds, and the science is not yet in on whether consuming them at nutraceutical doses is a good or bad thing. The most investigated of those are a group of hormonelike polyphenols called isoflavones, which seem to have effects on everything from kidney and cardiovascular disease and various cancers to hot flashes, bone calcium loss and other symptoms of menopause.

Connie Weaver, a Purdue University nutritionist and director of that institution’s Botanicals Research Center for Age Related Diseases, first became interested in soy isoflavones in 1999. “I went to a local health food store,” she recalls, “and there were 13 different supplements that claimed to be effective for bone loss.” But when she checked the research, Weaver recalls, “the literature was pathetic. I decided we’d better start doing some studies.”

What she and other researchers have found is a vast swamp of complexity. Of the two main isoflavones, genistein and diadzein, the former seems to be more effective in preventing osteoporosis. Unless, that is, the person consuming it happens to have bacteria in the gut that convert the compound diadzein into another one called equol, which might offer more bone protection than either of the soy isoflavones—or might not. And there’s even some worry that the soy compounds could boost rates of breast cancer, just as estrogen supplements used in hormone replacement therapy can.

“Nutritionally you’ve got to appreciate soy,” Weaver says, “but there are also all these bioactive substances in there.” At high concentrations, she adds, “the problem is that they do some good things, some other things, and some who-knows-what things.” The goal, Weaver asserts, “is to figure out what combinations have advantageous impacts on bone health, heart health, and so on, without deleterious impacts.” At least three long-term trials testing the effects of soy isoflavones on bone health are in progress, Weaver notes, “but we’ve got a long way to go before we can say what works and what doesn’t.”

That conclusion means more research, of course, and dozens of nutraceutical trials are under way, many sponsored by ODS and other branches of the NIH. But some investigators fret that vital studies are being rushed or overlooked because of limited research funding. Peters worries that lycopene’s lackluster performance to date may mean that it never progresses to clinical trials—a situation that could leave millions of consumers paying for supplements that might not be doing them any good. “We can’t recommend using lycopene based on the current evidence,” Peters says, “but that doesn’t mean it has no benefit. There are some important studies that haven’t yet been done.”

Similarly, Greg M. Cole, a researcher at the University of California, Los Angeles, who sees great promise in using omega-3 fatty acids to prevent Alzheimer’s disease and other forms of age-related dementia, expresses concern that current clinical trials lack funding to target the most promising patient population—people who have not yet started to show signs of those problems. “The risk of Alzheimer’s doubles with every five years after age 65,” he says, “and we’ve got a generation of 75 million people heading into that. We can’t afford to miss something that might help with prevention just because we couldn’t find the money to study it.”

Not-So-Helpful Guidelines
In the meantime, patients, physicians and just plain folks will have to do the best they can to make smart choices with incomplete and potentially misleading information. The oversight of dietary supplements is loose: FDA regulations allow for several different types of efficacy claims to be made on labels, including fairly robust “significant scientific agreement” claims that the nutrient in question has a direct effect on a specific disease, but also so-called qualified health claims, where phrases such as “some evidence suggests that” are added. There’s even room for “structure/function” claims: “calcium builds strong bones” is a noncontroversial example—which are not even evaluated by the FDA. (The claims do have to carry a footnoted disclaimer to that effect, however, a stipulation that can result in supplement labels with more asterisks than a Major League Baseball record book.)

“The danger of pseudoscience and quackery is very real,” says Jeffrey I. Mechanick, an endocrinologist at the Mount Sinai School of Medicine who has written extensively about the use of dietary supplements in the treatment of diabetes and other metabolic diseases. “Dietary supplements in general should not be supplanting proven therapies,” he cautions, “but I don’t see any reason to use words like ‘alternative’ or ‘complementary’ to describe them. I just use ‘proven’ or ‘unproven,’ and that proof is what should guide patients and their physicians.”

For many nutraceuticals, the most compelling evidence for efficacy remains anecdotal or, at best, based on hints of benefit from small or poorly controlled studies. Still, Weaver says, that doesn’t stop several of the researchers at her institute from using nutraceutical supplements themselves. “Anecdotal evidence really shouldn’t be very convincing to scientists,” she says, “but people remain hopeful.” That hope, to a large degree, is what fuels the popularity of dietary supplements. But it’s good science that ultimately will determine whether the hope is well placed or not.

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